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Weather patterns across the world are expected to become more volatile in the coming months as ocean temperatures continue to shift across the tropical Pacific.
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern linked to unusually warm surface waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. It can influence rainfall, temperatures, and storm activity thousands of miles away, although its effects are not identical in every country or during every event.
The phenomenon usually develops between March and June before reaching its strongest point between November and February. Depending on its intensity and how it interacts with other climate systems, it can contribute to heatwaves, drought, heavy rain and flooding.
Forecasts cannot pinpoint exactly where every impact will fall, but they can indicate which regions face an increased chance of abnormal conditions.
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The World Meteorological Organization has now issued a warning that the current El Niño is forecast to strengthen rapidly, increasing the likelihood of ‘extreme weather events’ taking hold across multiple regions soon.
Its latest seasonal update says ocean temperatures in key monitoring areas are expected to rise more than 2°C above average during July to September, with forecast models showing strong agreement about further intensification.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said: “El Niño conditions are already underway and are forecast to strengthen rapidly into a strong event - as accurately anticipated by WMO forecasts. This will intensify the chances of drought and heavy rainfall and the risk of heatwaves on land and marine heatwaves in many regions of the world.”
The organisation expects above-average temperatures across most populated land areas between 60°S and 60°N. That includes much of the world outside the polar regions, although the outlook is based on probabilities rather than guarantees for individual locations.
Rainfall patterns are also expected to vary sharply. Above-normal rain is forecast across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, whilst drier conditions are considered more likely across parts of the Indian subcontinent, Australia, Central America, the Caribbean and northwestern South America.
Parts of equatorial Africa could see contrasting conditions, with areas near the northern Gulf of Guinea facing wetter weather, whilst the Greater Horn of Africa is expected to receive less rain than usual.
The WMO said it is increasing coordination, climate information services and early-warning support to help governments, humanitarian agencies and vulnerable communities prepare.
Saulo added: “The WMO community has launched an unprecedented mobilization to coordinate activities across the United Nations and at regional level to support governments, humanitarian organizations and climate-sensitive sectors. Advanced seasonal forecasts and early warnings are vital to save lives and cushion the impact on our economies and our communities.”
The organisation also stressed that the phrase ‘super El Niño’ is not part of its official classification system, which instead categorises events as weak, moderate, strong or very strong.
