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One of the first things that came to mind for many following the growing popularity of predictions markets was the potential for insider trading, and U.S. President Donald Trump has now offered up his own unexpected perspective after a member of his administration was arrested.
Insider trading has arguably never been easier thanks to the rise of prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket, as people can now stake money on pretty much anything, dramatically increasing the likelihood of individuals betting on actions they can control.
Unlike traditional bookmakers, stakes on prediction markets are set entirely by the users themselves with odds determined by how much people place on one side of each statement.
You can technically bet on anything but there always needs to be someone willing to pick up the opposing option, leading to some rather wild predictions like the return of Jesus Christ.
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The potential for anything to become a market has led to easy exploitation, however, as even editors for MrBeast have been caught making money off info relating to the YouTuber's newest videos.
It becomes increasingly alarming, however, when the government and global politics are involved, as many of the most popular predictions in the last year have involved military action led by America.
The Iran war has been a particular target for prediction market users, with many betting on the death of the country's Supreme Leader and some even sending death threats to a journalist after their reporting resulted in a lost prediction.
Reports have suggested that a special forces soldier involved in the capture of Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro allegedly made money from predictions related to the leader's removal, resulting in an arrest.
During a recent press conference, as reported by Bloomberg, President Trump was asked about these accusations of insider trading and the wider impact of this on U.S. military action, resulting in an unexpected response.
"Well, I don't know about it, but was he betting that they would get him, or that they wouldn't get him," Trump enquired. Upon being informed that it was the former, Trump added: "That's interesting. That's like Pete Rose betting on his own team," referencing the permanent ban of the Cincinnati Reds manager in 1989.
He also offered an assessment of prediction markets as a whole, revealing: "The whole world, unfortunately, has become somewhat of a casino. And you look at what's going on all over the world in Europe and every place, they're doing these betting things.
"I was never much in favor of it. I don't like it conceptually," Trump continued. "But it is what it is. No, I think that I'm not happy with any of that stuff, but they have all these different sites. They have predictive markets. It's a crazy world. It's a much different world than it was."
While he has expressed his distaste towards the concept, Trump appears willing to accept the existence of prediction markets as a reflection of the world right now — perhaps also because his eldest son, Donald Trump Jr., is an advisor for Polymarket.
