Customers who bet on death of Iran's leader issue murder threat after being told they will receive zero of $54,000,000 payout

Prediction markets are having a greater impact on global affairs than many expected, with some users sending death threats to one journalist after his reports resulted in a lost 'bet'.

Gambling for most of history has been reserved to recreational events, with sports emerging as the most popular avenue for people to wager money on results and outcomes.

It was only natural that this would creep ever further into daily life however, and the emergence of prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi have opened up the floodgates to a rather dystopian future.

These markets allow users to 'bet' on the outcome of pretty much everything, from the use of nuclear weapons to the return of Jesus Christ, yet the key stipulation is that they have to be met with someone wagering on the opposite outcome instead of playing against the bookmakers themselves.

The recent attacks on Iran from the US and Israeli militaries have proven to be a prime field for many people using prediction markets, yet the uncertainty of the war and wagers surrounding it have left some unexpected individuals in rather precarious situations.

We've already seen bettors 'cheated' out of a $54 million payout following the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, as Kalshi refused to settle on his removal through these specific means due to 'grammatically ambiguous' language.

Now, following the refusal again to pay out regarding a prediction for Iran striking Israel by a certain date, some scorned users have sent death threats to a journalist reporting on the action.

As reported by the Times of Israel, military correspondent Emanuel Fabian shared what he believed was a somewhat 'normal' missile strike towards Israel on March 10.

"No injuries are reported in Iran's latest ballistic missile attack on Israel, the fourth today," Fabian's post on X reads. "One missile struck an open area just outside Beit Shemesh, first reponders say and footage shows.

"Sirens had sounded across the Jerusalem area, the West Bank, and parts of southern Israel."

This one small part of a much larger conflict has caused chaos for Fabian, however, as he shortly started receiving requests to change his reporting which then turned into death threats.

Gamblers sent messages and emails directly to the journalist demanding that he correct his reporting under the clarification that it was an interceptor fragment that struck Israel and not a ballistic missile.

He confirmed his original reporting to be true with various military sources, yet the messages continued and he shortly realized that this clarification would change the outcome of a Polymarket bet.

The aforementioned bet would have resolved to 'Yes' if Iran "initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israel's soil on the listed date in Israel Time," the wager's page reveals, adding that "otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'," as intercepted missiles would not be deemed 'Yes' in that specific outcome.

Over $14 million had been wagered on the event from both sides, and a significant amount of money was held in the balance entirely on Fabian's reporting, leading some to seek extreme measures to get the result they wanted.

"You have no idea how much you've put yourself at risk," began one message the journalist received from a bettor. "Today is the most significant day of your career. You have two choices: either believe that we have the capabilities, and after you make us lose $900,000 we will invest no less than that to finish you."

Fabian has stuck by his guns despite the extreme threats, yet he's fearful that the same might not be said for other journalists who could be swayed by financial compensation to change their reporting — another reason why many argue that these prediction markets are far more dangerous than they initially seem.