Science behind 'Doomsday' prediction from 1960s mathematician that points to exact date world will end
We're constantly being warned that the end is nigh, and with the likes of Nostradamus and Baba Vanga supposedly predicting the untimely demise of the human race, it sometimes feels that we're nearing the end of the line.
While Baba Vanga thinks we've got plenty of time left and 5079 will be the year of our total destruction, mathematician Heinz von Foerster unfortunately gives us a lot less time on the clock.
Published in Science back in 1960, von Foerster's Doomsday equation predicted future population growth and the effects it would have on the human race.
Crunching the numbers, von Foerster's doomsday prediction boils down to three core concepts: accelerating growth loops, power laws, and mathematical singularities.
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A standard growth model looks at the idea of a population doubling every so many years, and while the curve goes up fast, it's predictable.
The doomsday model postulates that the growth rate itself accelerates over time, with the population doubling in increasingly shorter bursts.
When a species grows too large in normal biology, it runs out of food or space (known as carrying capacity), and growth stops.
Von Foerster suggests that the human race defies this rule because we invent technology, meaning a larger population leads to more ideas, better agriculture, and improved medicine.
We're already seeing this in action, with some claims that artificial intelligence will be able to cure all diseases.
More advanced tech leads to a positive feedback loop where we can use tech to support more people.
While that might sound like a good thing, von Foerster came up with his doomsday model when he tracked historical population data from 1 AD to 1958. The model said that if Earth's population continued to grow at its rate from back then, the human race would 'squeeze itself to death' on Friday, November 13, 2026.
Yes, Friday the 13th really could be that unlucky.
The Earth's current population of 8.3 billion people has leaped from the 3.02 billion that called Earth home in 1960, but von Foerster's numbers could be a little off.
Notably, the rate of Earth's population increase has actually slowed in more recent years.
As you might've noticed from Elon Musk constantly posting about falling birth rates, this is said to be a contributing factor, while modern demographers claim improved education and family planning play a part.
Von Foerster wasn't alone in his musings, with astrophysicist Brandon Carter creating his Doomsday Argument (also known as the Carter Catastrophe). Carter suggested the total number of humans is unlikely to be much bigger than the total number of humans who've been born so far.
The Carter Catastrophe is said to be 95% accurate and predicts our doomsday date in the year 11,146, which thankfully means none of us will be around to see it happen.
There's a clear disconnect between von Foerster and Carter's work, with over 8,000 years of difference being more than just a slight rounding error.
If population growth has slowed down, then in theory, Foerster's November 2026 date is off. That should mean we have a little longer to get our affairs in order, but it'll be interesting to see if November 13 comes and goes without incident.