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Only a week after the election and there are already growing concerns about what the US President's return could mean for the climate.
While much remains unclear at this point, one thing has been confirmed. President Donald Trump has pledged to roll back many of President Joe Biden’s green policies.
This could mean the United States pulls back from international efforts to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, compared to preindustrial times.
However, researchers say Trump's expected rollbacks might not have a substantial impact on current global warming efforts. So long as other countries don't follow suit and slow down their own climate actions in response.
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The Climate Action Tracker (CAT), which analyses each countries’ climate plans projects that Trump's potential retreat could raise global temperatures by just 0.04C by the end of the century.
Bill Hare of Climate Analytics, one of CAT's contributors, said the effect could be 'really quite small.'
He added: "The damage it would do emission-wise to global climate action, if just confined to the United States and over four to five years, is probably recoverable."
However, the problem is how the actions of a superpower, like the US, could influence other nations. If it loosens its climate goals, other countries might do the same.
As the world’s second-largest emitter of greenhouse gases, the U.S. has significant global influence.
All will become clearer in the next few weeks and months, with nations expected to submit updated emissions-reduction plans to the United Nations by February 2025.
Hare described that a 'fundamental' question will be China’s response as it is currently the world’s largest emitter.
According to the CAT report, China would need to cut its emissions by 66% by 2030 and 78% by 2035 to align with the 1.5C limit.
"If one looks at the rapid drop in emissions needed, it is reasonable to ask: How could this be possible?" Hare said of the China projections.
"The short answer is it's mainly because we can decarbonise the power sector nearly everywhere, quite quickly. And the first thing to do is to get out of coal."
The report follows research which found that carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels rose again this year to a new record.
CAT projects that the world is on track to warm by 2.6 degrees Celsius by the end of the century. But this estimate hasn't changed much in the past three years due to a 'flat-line' in government actions.
Coal - which accounts for 41% of global fossil fuel emissions - saw a slight increase in India, China and the rest of the world, despite falling in the US and Europe.
