AI has made a surprising prediction when asked which country will become the world’s biggest superpower by 2040.
Artificial intelligence can provide intriguing glimpses into the future if you're willing to ask the right questions. But asking unsettling questions tends to yield equally unsettling responses.
AI has previously forecasted the number one warning sign that World War III is approaching, identified the most dangerous places to be if global conflict erupts, and even predicted the potential death toll.
Now, UNILADTech spoke to ChatGPT to get its take on which nation will become the world's dominant superpower by 2040.
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The OpenAI chatbot recognises the USA as the 'world's sole reigning superpower, possessing unmatched global influence through its dominant military, economy, and technological advancement.’ And while it admits there's no 'certain answer' to this question, current trends reveal some unexpected answers.
According to ChatGPT, the United States is most likely to maintain its superpower status by 2040 and it puts this down to several factors, including being the 'largest military power by far and the leader in advanced tech' such as AI, biotech, semiconductors and defence.
The chatbot also considers its strong alliances with NATO, Japan, South Korea, and Australia, its status as a reserve currency and its world-class universities, as well as its 'innovation ecosystem.'
However, ChatGPT identifies potential threats to America's position, such as 'political polarisation, high national debt and internal social divisions.'
More surprisingly, the 'strongest challenger' to the US dominance is China due to its 'massive industrial base, global infrastructure influence, rapid technological development, expanding military power and large population with state-driven long-term planning,' ChatGPT noted.
But China faces its own vulnerabilities, including an 'ageing population, economic slowdown and debt issues, global trust and alliance limitations and possible geopolitical conflict' such as the Taiwan situation.
"China could surpass the U.S. economically in total GDP, but total GDP alone doesn’t determine superpower status — military reach, alliances, soft power, and innovation matter too," ChatGPT explained.
Also in contention is India which the world's most popular chatbot described as a 'long-term dark horse.'
Its young and growing population, fast economic growth, increasing global strategic importance and democratic system with a growing tech sector make it a strong contender to become a superpower. That said, India's 'infrastructure gaps, poverty and inequality and governance and institutional challenges' could challenge its rising potential, ChatGPT answered.
"India could be a major power by 2040, but becoming the single dominant superpower is less likely in that timeframe," ChatGPT said.
In terms of the most likely scenario by 2040, the AI chatbot predicts that the world is moving towards a 'multipolar system' rather than a dominant superpower, where 'the U.S. and China are the two biggest powers, with India and the EU as major players.'
Breaking it down into probabilities, ChatGPT estimates that the US remaining the top overall power is around 45-50%, while China claiming the top spot sits around 35-40%.
Meanwhile, the chances of a multipolar tie without a clear leader are a 'very likely scenario.' In the mix, India has a 'low probability of becoming a clear superpower by 2040 but is still 'rising in the long-term.'