Where traders think Trump's Republicans are most vulnerable as Americans vote in midterms
Voters across the US are taking to the polls to have their say in the midterm elections today (November 3), with traders placing their predictions on the outcome.
This comes after President Donald Trump spoke out on the Pod Force One podcast, where he suggested that he would pardon the likes of Elon Musk if Democrats take control of Congress.
The US leader said: “It’s talk. But if it is talk, we’ll have to protect them.”
It seems his fears of a blue majority could become reality as prediction markets point towards a possible Democratic takeover in the House of Representatives and the Senate.
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Traders have put the Democrats’ chances of taking the House of Representatives at around 94.5%, while their chances of gaining control of the Senate have climbed to approximately 76.5% on Polymarket.
The figures represent a notable shift in the run-up to election day, particularly in the Senate, where traders have become increasingly willing to back a Democratic takeover.
However, it is important to note that these figures are market prices rather than guaranteed election forecasts, and they can change as traders react to new information and place bets.
Three Senate races attracting traders’ attention
Michigan is proving to be an interesting contest as it represents an opportunity for Republicans to pick up a seat currently held by Democrats. The seat is being vacated by Democratic Senator Gary Peters, who is retiring, leaving Republican Mike Rogers and Democrat Abdul El-Sayed competing to replace him.
Despite Trump narrowly carrying the state in the 2024 presidential election, prediction markets have been pricing in a Democratic win, with El-Sayed trading at around 80.5% on Polymarket.
Meanwhile, Maine has one of the Republican-held seats that Democrats are hoping to flip, with long-serving Senator Susan Collins facing Democratic challenger Troy Jackson.
The latest prediction-market snapshot has Jackson at around 73.5%, compared with Collins at approximately 26.5%.
In Ohio, another Republican-held Senate seat is attracting attention, with Republican Senator Jon Husted facing former Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown.
Husted took over the seat after JD Vance left the Senate to become vice president, and the race is of particular interest due to Ohio voting for Trump in the last presidential election.
How much have prediction markets shifted in the last week?
One of the most interesting developments is how dramatically the Senate market has moved compared with the House as, according to Polymarket’s recorded prices, the market for Democrats taking control of the Senate rose from approximately 66.5% on October 27 to 76.5% on November 3.
The House market also moved towards Democrats, rising from approximately 91.5% to 94.5% over the same time period.
The movement also continued in the final 24 hours before voting, with the Senate market rising by approximately five percentage points on Polymarket.
What would a Democratic victory mean for Trump?
A Democratic takeover of Congress could have significant consequences for the remainder of Trump’s presidency.
With Democrats in control of the House’s committees and investigative powers, they would have a greater ability to scrutinise the Trump administration.
Comments have also been made to suggest that Democratic lawmakers may want to examine Musk’s role in the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), especially how decisions were made to slash federal spending, reduce government jobs and review public contracts.
Ultimately though, there is an important distinction between what people are betting on and what voters will actually decide.
Prediction markets can get it wrong, and their prices are not polling figures or guarantees of an election result.
The final outcome will only become clear once Americans have been to the polls and the results have been counted.
