Scientists issue unnerving update on when a ‘city killer’ asteroid could hit the Moon.
If 2025 feels like it's been one disaster warning after another, you're not imagining things. Between mystics like Nostradamus and Baba Vanga predicting global conflicts and researchers warning about multiple 'city killer' asteroids that could devastate Earth, it's been a year of sinister headlines.
Measuring between 53 and 67 metres across, asteroid 2024 YR4 made quite an entrance when it was first discovered.
To put that size into perspective, we're talking about an object comparable to the asteroid that flattened 2,000 square kilometres of forest in Tunguska, Siberia back in 1908.
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If something that size hit a populated area today, it would be catastrophic.
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Initial calculations suggested that this chunk of space rock had a less than 1.5 percent chance of colliding with Earth in December 2032.
As more information was uncovered, this probability quickly doubled.
And in February 2025, NASA warned that 2024 YR4 is going to come ‘quite close to Earth’ in 2028, with a probability of ‘one in 45 chance’ of making an impact.
More terrifyingly, if it were to collide with our home planet, its size and velocity would be enough to wipe out an entire city, if not more.
Thankfully, further observations quickly ruled out any realistic chance of 2024 YR4 hitting Earth - dropping the collision probability to essentially zero.
The Moon, however, remained in the firing line, with a collision risk of 3.8 percent.
However, the collision risk of the 2024 YR4 has now increased. Not for Earth, but the Moon.
Using fresh observations from the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) captured in May, astronomers led by Andy Rivkin of Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory have updated the collision probability to be 4.3 percent.
While that's not particularly high, it's enough for researchers to gather in anticipation.
This is because the impact wouldn't destroy the Moon or even noticeably affect its orbit. Instead, it would create a spectacular crater formation process that scientists could observe in real time.
“The possibility of getting a chance for an observation of a sizable Moon impact is indeed an interesting scenario from a scientific point of view," said Richard Moissl, head of the European Space Agency's planetary defence office.
We rarely get to observe significant impacts as they happen, and having advance warning would allow scientists to point every available telescope and instrument at the Moon to capture the event. If it happens, it'll definitely be on for the history books.