Scientist addresses 1960 study predicting Friday 13 November 2026 will be ‘doomsday’
Without sounding like a crazy person wearing an 'End is Nigh' placard, there are fears that our time on Earth could soon be coming to an end.
While Bulgarian mystic Baba Vanga thinks we've got until 5079 for all life to be extinguished, some think we've got far less time. You might not need to worry about getting that report for your nagging boss done because one piece from 1960 claims the world will be coming to an end on November 13, 2026.
That's right, could we really have just over a month to go until we shuffle off this mortal coil?
What is 1960's doomsday prediction?
Despite being 66 years old, Heinz von Foerster's doomsday prediction is back in the news due to the fact that it's about to (supposedly) come true. First published in Science, von Foerster used three concepts to try and predict when the human race would become too much for itself to handle. Three core concepts focused on accelerating growth loops, power laws, and mathematical singularities.
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The prediction suggests that Earth's population will double in shorter increments until we collapse under our own weight.
While Friday 13 might sound like an alarmingly specific date, Alan MacEachern (via The Conversation) notes that von Foerster is a cybernetics expert who was backed up with work from two of his own students, Patricia M. Mora and Lawrence W. Amiot.
The trio warned: "Our great-great-grandchildren will not starve. They will be squeezed to death.”
Some models focus on the demographic theories of Thomas Robert Malthus, arguing that populations are stopped from growing exponentially by a lack of ability to feed themselves.
Instead, Foerster and co. said that the human race's ability to form coalitions and resolve problems means we could grow at an ever-increasing rate.
They used 24 estimates about the world's population from the past 2,000 years, showcasing how we've continued to outpace expectations.
With actual math behind these workings, the doomsday prophecy remained concerningly accurate until around 1993. At the halfway point of the prediction, the global population began to trail behind forecasts. We know Elon Musk has been banging on about falling birth rates, and in 2026, the global birth rate is around half of what it was in 1960.
With this in mind, it doesn't sound like we're going to wake up on November 13 and it be our final day on Earth.
Scientist thinks von Foerster's doomsday prediction is outdated
MacEachern is a history professor at Western University, reminding us how von Foerster's prophecy made a splash back in the day and continues to be discussed in the 21st century. When Science first published the piece, the magazine was apparently inundated with mathematicians and demographers who branded it as “ridiculous” and “manifestly absurd." The team doubled down on their work.
Still, it was cited in increasingly unusual places, being mentioned in a 1963 Canadian Parliamentary committee about why chemical pesticides need to be used to help feed the booming population, and also in the landmark Roe v. Wade abortion case of 1971 for why the American government shouldn't favour an increased population.
MacEachern seems skeptical about the doomsday prediction's place in 2026, reminding us how Heinz von Foerster was once a stage magician and adding that he borrowed "the classic language of stagecraft, an effective illusion relies on three parts: the setup, the extraordinary turn and the final reveal that returns the situation to normal."
He concludes that von Foerster and his co-authors gained attention because they wrapped a relatively ordinary article in an 'extraordinary' title and conclusion, and with it being grounded in research and argument, MacEachern claims it drew "the world’s attention to a serious matter by way of absurdity — that’s a good trick."
Feel free to keep making plans for Friday 13, November, 2026.