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These are the chances of Elon Musk's space car hitting Earth in the next million years

Home> Science> Space

Published 13:15 14 Jun 2024 GMT+1

These are the chances of Elon Musk's space car hitting Earth in the next million years

What will happen if it crash lands back on Earth?

Rikki Loftus

Rikki Loftus

It’s been six years since Elon Musk had a Tesla Roadster blasted off into space to roam the solar system for eternity.

Behind the wheel was a dummy nicknamed Starman, who launched in February 2018 while listening to David Bowie’s Space Oddity in one ear and Is There Life on Mars? in the other.

Since then, the website whereisroadster.com claims that as of June 14, the interplanetary Tesla is over 73 million miles away from Earth and is moving at a speed of 24,685 mph.

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The Tesla Roadster has been roaming the solar system for the last six years (SpaceX via Getty Images)
The Tesla Roadster has been roaming the solar system for the last six years (SpaceX via Getty Images)

Having now completed four orbits around the Sun since setting off, it begs the question of how likely it is that our planet could collide with the vehicle.

Crashing into Earth would certainly put an end to the car’s travels and it is a terrifying thought to imagine Starman plummeting back into the atmosphere without warning, but what are the chances it could happen?

Luckily, a group of researchers have analyzed its orbit for the next few million years and, while it’s impossible to map it out with complete precision, they have a pretty good idea of where the automobile will be at any point in time.

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There is a small chance that the Roadster could return, crash landing back to Earth but it's not likely - in fact, the researchers reckon there is only a 6% chance of that happening.

There's a small chance the Tesla could collide with Earth (SpaceX via Getty Images)
There's a small chance the Tesla could collide with Earth (SpaceX via Getty Images)

Professor Hanno Rein from the University of Toronto spoke to science.org following the launch, saying that it is the Sun’s gravity that will bring the Tesla swinging into an ‘elliptical orbit’ so that it will repeatedly cross the orbits of Mars, Earth and Venus.

Rein added that it will continue to follow this route until it sustains ‘a fatal accident’.

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The Roadster’s first close encounter with us will be in 2091 but if it does come falling back down, Musk needn’t panic about his car insurance as it’s likely that the car will burn up as it re-enters the atmosphere.

And Rein has said that, “there is no risk to health and safety whatsoever,” if the vehicle does collide with Earth.

While it’s fun to speculate where in the solar system the Tesla could be, it’s also possible that it no longer exists at all.

The electric car could have already been decimated by a meteoroid or could have eroded as a result of radiation.

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But if Starman is still living up to his name, he may be exploring the stars for millions of years to come.

Featured Image Credit: Space X / Taylor Hill/Contributor via Getty Images
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