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Things might not be all that they seem right now in the economic world, as one chief economist at Goldman Sachs bank has issued an alarming warning for the future that could forecast significant issues.
2025 has been a bit of a rollercoaster when it comes to the economy, as while some companies and individuals have seen significant increases due to current trends and moves from the government, other actions like Trump's tariff plans have created significant instability.
One of the major issues plaguing not only just the United States but the wider world right now is employment scarcity, as many people are struggling to find jobs in the wake of hiring freezes and AI takeovers.
Experts have suggested that only a few jobs will still exist in the near future thanks to the advancements made in artificial intelligence, yet it seems like the economy is already feeling the effects of this, even if it might not necessarily be showing it.
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As reported by Fortune, Goldman Sachs' chief US economist Jan Hatzius has recently highlighted that otherwise positive GDP estimates are actually misleading, and that right now is the worst that the job market has looked outside of a recession across the last 50 years.
Hatzius cites the currently government shutdown as the primary reason why GDP estimates look better than they actually are, and has urged people to look at employment statistics and changing business behavior as the real sign of a struggling economy.
"Household surveys are already very negative," the chief economist outlines. "For example, the expected change in unemployment rate over the next year has never been this bad outside recessionary periods since the University of Michigan started asking the question in 1978," so it likely stretches even further than that too.
The growing GDP is, according to Hatzius, mostly down to the frontloading of durable goods that was brought on by Trump's tariffs earlier on in the year, and looking at other metrics tells a far different story.
"Survey measures of both manufacturing and services growth – which are less affected by frontloading – remain around 50, consistent with stagnation or very slow growth," he continues to explain.
Expectedly, AI is at the core of why so many – especially young people – are struggling to find work. Hatzius illustrates that "history suggests that labor demand – especially in 'routine cognitive' occupations but perhaps also more broadly – is likely to decline further with increased AI penetration."
Time will only tell quite how bad it'll end up being, but this is certainly not an optimistic outlook for the job market in the near future.
