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Experts warn Earth has crossed the first major climate tipping point.
2025 hasn't been short on alarming climate warnings, from predictions that rising sea levels could submerge over 100 million buildings by 2100 to countless other dire forecasts.
Now, a new study reveals that our planet has already crossed a critical threshold linked to greenhouse gas emissions.
Warm-water coral reefs are now facing long-term, irreversible decline, which threatens the livelihoods of hundreds of millions of people worldwide. The world's coral reefs host about a quarter of all marine species but are considered among the most vulnerable ecosystems to global warming.
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“Unless we return to global mean surface temperatures of 1.2 °C (and eventually to at least 1 °C) as fast as possible, we will not retain warm-water reefs on our planet at any meaningful scale,” the report said.
Coral reefs have been experiencing a global bleaching event since January 2023, the fourth and worst on record, which has pushed reefs into 'uncharted territory.'
According to the report, the world is also 'on the brink' of reaching other devastating tipping points, including the die-off of the Amazon rainforest, the collapse of major ocean currents and the loss of ice sheets.
The Global Tipping Points report was led by the University of Exeter and funded by Amazon founder Jeff Bezos. It includes contributions from 160 scientists across 87 institutions in 23 countries.
The report estimates that coral reefs hit their tipping point when global temperatures reach between 1°C and 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, with a central estimate of 1.2°C. Current global warming stands at about 1.4°C.
Without rapid cuts to greenhouse gases, the upper threshold of 1.5 °C would be hit in the next 10 years, the report noted.
“We can no longer talk about tipping points as a future risk,” said Prof Tim Lenton at the University of Exeter’s Global Systems Institute. “The first tipping of widespread dieback of warm water coral reefs is already underway.”
He emphasised that this crisis is already impacting hundreds of millions of people who depend on reefs for their livelihoods, food security, and coastal protection.
Meanwhile, some scientists have pushed back on the report's dire conclusions.
Professor Peter Mumby, a leading coral reef scientist at the University of Queensland in Australia, agreed that 'aggressive' action on climate change and improved local reef management are desperately needed. However, he worries that some people might feel that coral reef habitats cannot be saved, and as such, society might 'give up on coral reefs' altogether.
Dr. Tracy Ainsworth, the vice-president of the International Coral Reef Society, said that in many places, reef ecosystems are transforming and no longer dominated by corals.
“The future of coral reefs is one of transformation, ecosystem restructure and new challenges,” she explained. “Our challenge now is to understand how all of these different ecosystems are reorganising and how we can ensure they continue to support diverse marine life and communities.”
On the more positive side, the report says there are likely 'positive tipping points,' like the rapid adoption of electric vehicles that could also rapidly bring down greenhouse gas emissions.
“The race is on to bring forward these positive tipping points to avoid what we are now sure will be the unmanageable consequences of further tipping points in the Earth system,” Lenton concluded.
