Why mystery 3I/ATLAS object could trigger terrifying 'Black Swan' event that changes civilization forever
One Harvard scientist has issued a warning that people are underestimating the threat of mystery space object 3I/ATLAS, claiming that a 'Black Swan' event could be triggered that would change the world forever.
While most scientists have dismissed speculation surrounding 3I/ATLAS – a mystery comet and asteroid-like object currently hurtling through our solar system – there remain a select few who are insistent that it is a sign of an impending alien invasion.
Harvard physicist Avi Loeb is one of the most prominent names championing this theory, as he has suggested that the comet features an unusual 'tail' that distinguishes it as different from traditional intergalactic objects.
NASA's official tracker for 3I/ATLAS shows the mystery object passing closely by a number of planets including Mars and Venus, and hiding from view to us on Earth by passing behind the Sun when we're on the other side.
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Loeb and other detractors claim that the alien-controlled object will then use this opportunity to reroute its course towards our planet when it reemerges into view, with the physicist specifically warning that this could be a 'Black Swan' event, as reported by WION.
What is a 'Black Swan' event?
Popularized by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a 'Black Swan' event is categorized as something that's unpredictable, rare, and holds a high-impact that critically is not taken seriously beforehand but seen as inevitable in hindsight.
It has been used in reference to financial crashes, global pandemics, and even significant events like the 9/11 World Trade Center attacks.
When a Black Swan event occurs it will likely have a catastrophic and wide-reaching impact, and can often change the world forever as a result, so many use the theory to force people to take impending threats seriously as a result.
How is Comet 3I/ATLAS a Black Swan?
According to Loeb – who spoke in a recent episode of Joe Rogan's podcast – 3I/ATLAS is an 'outlier' and isn't being taken seriously enough by both the scientific community and wider world.
"If you keep ignoring outliers, you miss the very things that redefine reality," Loeb argued, which is in his eyes the perfect reason to brand it a Black Swan event.
He brands the comet "statistically suspicious," arguing that the risk-averse nature of the scientific community is ignoring the high stakes of this potential alien attack, and that while "the cost of being wrong is embarrassment" for him, "the cost of being right and doing nothing could be missing the most important discovery in human history."
This is also effectively utilizing Blaise Pascal's famous philosophical wager, and Loeb has called on NASA and the ESA to pull money from the billions spent on Earth and study 3I/ATLAS directly, suggesting: "Why not invest a fraction of that in exploring a cosmic anomaly that might prove we're not alone?"